Right now, Singapore’s contact tracing, quarantine orders and leave of absence are all based on the 14-day estimation of the nCov’s incubation period.
But all of that could change because of a new study.
New Study On 2019-nCoV Led By Doctor Who Discovered SARS
On 11 Feb 2020, it was reported that everything we know about the 2019 nCoV virus could be untrue.
A team of researchers, led by Dr Zhong Nanshan, a doctor who previously discovered the SARS coronavirus, studied data gathered from over 1,000 2019-nCoV patients in China.
Findings:
The team alleges that the incubation period of the nCoV could be as long as 24 days, not 14 days.
Which could possibly mean that 14-day quarantine orders, leave of absence and contact tracing are not enough to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
They also claimed that the absence of fever in 2019-nCoV cases is much higher than in SARS and MERS cases.
The team claims that relying on temperature to detect infections isn’t enough.
CT Scans Alone Not Enough
Typically, patients have to go through CT scans before going through nucleic acid tests (NATs) to confirm infection.
Their CT scans have to show signs of the infection, typically showing up as ground-glass opacity or bilateral patchy shadowing in the chest.
If they do not, they will not go through NATs.
Among the 840 patients in the study who went for CT scans, only half showed ground-glass opacity and 46 per cent showed bilateral patchy shadowing.
This means if authorities simply depend on CT scans to detect the virus, a “significant amount” of infected patients might slip through the radar.
High Rate of Infections Among Medical Workers Revealed
Out of the over 1,000 nCoV patients studied, 2.09% of them are medical workers.
Meanwhile, China authorities didn’t reveal how many medical workers are infected.
However, the South Central Hospital of Wuhan University says 40 of their nurses and doctors are infected.
Will Things Change in Singapore?
At the moment, no. The study isn’t peer-reviewed yet and should not be used to guide clinical practices.
But whether it’s true or not, the only thing we can do is to take precautions during this period.
Stay safe, people, and remember to be responsible: if you’re unwell, see a doctor immediately instead of going in to work.
