No one could have envisioned this when the coronavirus first emerged, but the number of infections is steadily climbing towards the dreaded one million mark.
There were around 218,000 cases two weeks ago, but infections have nearly quadrupled since then.
At the time of writing, we have over 860,000 Covid-19 cases worldwide, with more than 42,000 deaths.
And with numbers increasing by 100,000 every two days in the last week, it’s only a matter of time before we have a million coronavirus infections.
How is it even possible that these numbers are growing at such an unbelievably rapid rate?
Two words: exponential growth.
Exponential Growth
You see, there’s a reason why, as one expert put it, this growth is “fundamentally difficult … for the human mind to understand.”
It’s because our minds are used to growth in a linear or arithmetic fashion.
Take this example from It’s Okay To Be Smart on YouTube:
If you have a pond with one lily pad that reproduces once a day, you’d have two lily pads on day 2, and four on day 3, and well, you get it.
Many of you, including me, might think 30 days, but the answer is actually 59 days.
This is because the area covered by the lily pads doubles from half to the whole pond on the last day.
So, that’s why the rate of infection seemed slow at the start but now seems quick and relentless.
With more than 860,000 infections, over 42,000 fatalities, and no signs of the disease abating, things look grim.
But how does this virus compare to viruses of the past?
Ebola (2014-2016)
Ebola was a particularly deadly disease, killing up to 50 percent of those who got infected. But because it was chiefly spread through bodily fluids like sweat and blood during the last stages of the disease, it wasn’t as contagious as Covid-19.
Conversely, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention believes that “some spread might be possible before people show symptoms”.
Moreover, because Ebola symptoms were so severe, health officials were able to quickly identify those who’d been in contact with people who had it and isolate them.
There were a total of 28,652 Ebola infections across 10 countries, with 11,325 deaths.
H1N1 Flu (2009)
In 2009, a new strain of flu emerged, infecting over 60 million Americans.
According to LiveScience, the H1N1 flu was less contagious than Covid-19 and had a much lower mortality rate of 0.02%, compared to Covid-19, which is somewhere between 2 to 3.4%.
Moreover, the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young adults, while Covid-19 seems to be particularly deadly for older patients.
Some studies estimated that 11 to 21 percent of the global population at the time – or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people (out of a total of 6.8 billion) – contracted the illness.
However, despite the high number, there were 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities.
SARS (2002-2004)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, similar to Covid-19, emerged from China and spread quickly through respiratory droplets.
While it was more contagious and had a higher death rate of 9.6 per cent, Covid-19 has already claimed more lives.
Unlike the coronavirus which presents mild symptoms in most patients, SARS was easy to track through contact tracing because the symptoms were typically very severe.
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Dr. Christine Kreuder Johnson, a professor of epidemiology and ecosystem health, says that Covid-19 has led to “more fatalities, more economic repercussions, more social repercussions than we [had] with SARS”.
There were a total of 8098 SARS cases globally, with 774 deaths.
The Spanish Flu (1918)
The 1918 flu epidemic was one of the deadliest flu seasons in history, infecting about one-third of the world’s population.
Because it was in the early 20th century, scientists didn’t know viruses caused disease, nor did they have a vaccine or antivirals to help prevent or treat influenza.
People were also living in very crowded conditions and had extremely poor hygiene, which helped the disease spread so rapidly.
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And unliked Covid-19, the group most affected by the Spanish flu were otherwise healthy adults ages 20 to 40.
It had a death rate of 2%.
In total, there were a total of 500 million cases, with over over 50 million deaths.
So, when will Covid-19 end?
The honest answer is that we don’t know.
Dr. Mark Schleiss, a pediatric infectious disease specialist, says that the only way to stop the virus is herd immunity, along with an effective vaccine.
But given that a vaccine takes a long time to develop – at least 18 months – we’re going to need to practice social distancing to help minimize the number of people who contract it until then.
Or hopefully, like SARS, the coronavirus will grow bored of infecting people and disappear.
Only time will tell.
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